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Filtered: Language of Price
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Trading is less about math formula or setups and more about how you think.
Consider using stop placement to lead yourself to your entry idea rather than the other way around.
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The truth about simple is that it that while it is always just there... it’s not the same for everybody. Simple is a polished gem that must be polished by each person. It can take a lot of work to get to simple.
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The EUR/USD has had some action and has been under discussion the last few months in our sessions. Most of the questions that come up are about how much data to use, the use of multiple time frames (which I don't advise) where should i be entering, what is the proper Median Line... We have been going back to building a foundation and understanding how to frame a market.
Once you understand how to frame your market, these questions become less relevant and on the surface of things. Every action has its reaction. There isn't any one right Median Line, trade, or anything else. Once your market is understood, opportunities are all over the place for you to choose from. I like certain type of deep pullback trades and first pullback trades but that isn't all that is available or are these necessarily the best types of trades. They are the best for me.
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The philosophy of Something Interesting: One way to trade off the significant.
I will touch on the highlights here and maybe through the charts you can see the flow of what I’m saying. With this conceptual framework I can keep myself from forcing trades, over-trading, from having to watch every tick, and can avoid trading in the noise. I do my analysis and sit back and wait for something interesting, wait for the market to be in play.
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Trading isn't about the tools or methods. Neither matter... We need to learn to use our tools and not have the tools use us.... The tool is the same no matter who is using it. The only thing that changes is the perception of the different people who use it. What is your perception controlled by? This is why we try to be as objective as possible when looking at price.
Chart 1: I will use the EUR/USD 60 min as an example because we have been following through its paces for a month in our live sessions. You could trade this with one tool and a bit of knowledge. It’s not a fancy tool, not a secret tool with special secret math. It’s Just a box. Do you remember seeing your kids do wondrous things with just a simple box? Often they would toss aside the present and use the box.
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This chart is directly related to the lessons and areas we spoke of in yesterdays live session. Think through your simple foundations and checklist as you approach a chart. No matter what methodology you use, you don't want to be distracted by noise so need a good foundation.
I'm often asked where is the best place to look for a pullback in a trend. The Median Line set gives a high probability area for price to run out of energy. The problem most traders have is being scared by price itself pulling back. They are often chasing their longs up near the top of the trend. I cal this trading in the hole.
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Some charts I'm keeping an eye on. The Yen and the EUR are continuations from a previous Weekly Median Line Maps.
AUD/USD 240min: I dumped the old lines cause they were grabbing too much data and ive been focused on the current action. Lots of traders have been looking way back and picking at longs which hasn't worked out so far for them. You can see here where we spotted the sellers early on and were hunting for shorts. Notice that orange line. We call that Last Swing Broke. Later on we extended that line across and you can see here the sellers in control. (the LSB starts at the blue circle).
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Markets finally got a little bounce to them today and I’m wondering if flow is changing or if its bait. Here is what I’m watching
AUD/USD 60min: These have been the lines that keep on giving. We have been following them out in our live sessions for some time. The geometry has been music.
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Risk Management comes in many forms. There are ways to let price do all the hard work for you before entering a trade.
We built this Median Line map for YELP during a live session identifying trend, structure, and buyers/sellers.
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A Few actionable Ideas from last weeks Median Line charts. All 3 ran out to there mapped stretch and ran. The lines are still in play.
AUD/USD 240min: I never got a retest to sell the upper Warning Line Price was is a hurry to meet the next Time and Price energy point of those same lines. From there it went back to its next stretch at the upper blue excursion line. I know a few members that lined up this long with various targets so congrats to them for making and sticking to their plan. Note that price action at each end gave an outside bar telegraphing its intentions. I also observe a pater of price washing the prior weeks lows before making new highs.
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I was working the ES 5min with a student as it was unfolding today. I thought the interaction would have some educational value and allow me bring some points across. The first chart shows a Modified Schiff Median Line setup that looks easy breezy. That chart is useless to me without the 2cd chart. It would be guessing.
Its not an interesting trade or a big trade but what makes it a high probability trade? It has nothing to do with techniques or methods.The Language of Price was telling a story and at some point I understood the context in time to take advantage of it. Its the hardest thing to do and the hardest thing to teach.
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Time to review charts from earlier this week. There are always things to learn or relearn.
Although I did well with this weeks charts, I'm including a USD/JPY chart cause It was the best setup of the three. I was only vaguely paying attention to this simple setup... The primary lesson I relearned thiis week is that you do not get more points for going more complex. The market doesn't care either way and is not impressed. The more complex you go the more there is to consider, and the more there is to get wrong.
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Some 60min maps to start the week
AUD/USD: We drew this stretch back to the Median in our live session today and watching the price action casually
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Some fresh maps for the week. I wanted to start out the AUD the same way I start out each and every chart. I look at the simple swing structure of the market.. Once you understand the market structure, you understand where to measure from, where to hide stops, which way the market is flowing from the facts of the buyers/sellers
Keep in mind that these are just maps. I look for lines of balance using the buyers/sellers behavior and don't mind playing either side if I get appropriate price action. Median Lines and A/R Lines work the same concept of extreme and balance.
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Lets update the Weekly Market Maps from earlier this week and see what there is to learn
USD/JPY:: The Yen has been my focus for a few weeks now. I observed the flow was down and the swings contraction inside those Median Lines (building energy). Price hugged that Sliding Parallel for a few more bars and wedged itself into a corner. Not an ideal entry (I like a good wash to confirm flow and to build a stop) but the market isn't always Ideal...I'm not happy with my trading in the yen over the last several weeks. The market was telling me that it broke that true level and was due for some volatility expansion. Risking money twice to go in and out was wrong for me..There is always something to learn about the market and yourself and there is always next week to start fresh and do better.
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A few charts and lines I'm watching for the week. Use them to spark ideas about reading price.
EUR/USD 240min: This center has been describing the price action well with the sellers clearly leaving their tracks.
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We always hear about how you should just keep it simple. its only simple in retrospect or if you know what to do... There is a lot of work that goes into getting to simple and usually requires that you learn something you didn't already know.
Here is a challenge. Take the blank chart apart and see how many significant distinctions you can recognize in the flow of price. There are key moments when price is speaking to you. It's not all in one shot, or any one simple thing.. There is nice geometry and flow to this chart as well as an almost identical formation pattern. Can you see It? Clear your mind and go bar by bar from the Sunday gap.
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Lets follow-up the Mid-Week Charts to see what we can learn and if there were any actionable trade ideas. Keep in mind that what's actionable for me might not be for you. There is no one size fits all. Each individual will have their own risk profile and their own trading style. Spend more time studying your market(and yourself) than trading. Slow down...
AUD/USD 60min: I said that price was "pressed, squeezed, and ripe". I was referring to price being at the extremes of both the Modified Schiff Median Line and the Grey Reaction Line. It was ripe for a trip back to balance. Just like everything else in life, things go out to extremes and come back to balance. The long trade idea at the black circle isn't for everybody. The flow is down and price has been cascading. Its a trade I take occasionally. I do like the price action at the bottom. Although you could do both the long(black circle) and short ideas(green circle) I prefer the the short. Price is in a downtrend and has come back to balance to reset. The Sunday gap has already been beaten to the downside and I can lean on those sellers for my stop. there are many choices for a target depending on your style.
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A few midweek chart maps while markets are active. Look for zooms to confirm lines.
USD/CAD 20min: Pure price action. No need to forecast, Let it happen and find buyers/sellers. Its the Language of Price
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Update to our original Lost Dacades chart which was updated here. This has turned out to be a mirror image of August 2010. Price is now at the bump off the tops. Back then it was a tight pullback and today we are in that same tight pullback. Whether we rocket out with the same momentum will be telling.
Shane
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Testimonials: Tim, I like your team. I am still learning and doing paper trades. You scare me when you use polished formality wording i.e. "I appreciate all of you taking the time out of your busy days to attend in person or watch the archived videos later, when ... Testimonials: I've been doing these sessions for just over a month now. Friends recommended them and I took a live basic seminar with Tim a few years back so I "sort of know the guy". I renewed for my 2nd month because they have been so good. Not only do I ... Testimonials: Your methodology has had a positive impact on my confidence level as well as the trading account.
I appreciate the way you teach the methodology. It is simple, straightforward and the beauty of it is that I no longer chase price and the chances of getting into a trade ... Testimonials: Quick note to let you know the seminar was quite an eye opening experience and a very long night into the early morning here in Australia, but well worth it. I have started back testing some of yours and Shane’s theory from the seminar and I am amazed how simple ...
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