Time for some review and look at our long term charts. 

ES #F monthly: First posted here in the Lost Decades post. Price has ticked our target along the upper MLH of the Median Lines. Notice the swings up getting smaller. Price has sought out and fulfilled its destiny here. Price is always seeking an area to probe.  Now we wait and see what it does with the test. Not interested in buying the next pullback if the sellers hold. Many good lessons here if you pay attention to what was written in the prior post.

Welcome to September.  Get the Chairman, CEO and Janitor together for a business meeting. Trading is a business and should be treated as such. I have a meeting every month to review what we did right, what we can be done better, and what can be learned about ourselves and markets. Here are a few notes from my meeting.

I keep track of several volatility measures in all the instruments and time frames I may trade. I came into August knowing that Volatility was shrinking as the dog days of summer wound down. I wanted to adjust my rhythm to the markets rhythm.

Some charts I'm keeping an eye on. The Yen and the EUR  are continuations from a previous Weekly Median Line Maps. 

AUD/USD 240min: I dumped the old lines cause they were grabbing too much data and ive been focused on the current action. Lots of traders have been looking way back and picking at longs which hasn't worked out so far for them. You can see here where we spotted the sellers early on and were hunting for shorts. Notice that orange line. We call that Last Swing Broke. Later on we extended that line across and you can see here the sellers in control. (the LSB starts at the blue circle). 

Follow up on some maps we built in our live sessions. We had an interesting session today where we changed the context of how we think about Median line tools and Market Structure. We got down to the Nature of the Lines and how to think like a trader rather than just following somebody else's steps.

AUD/USD 20min: If you were there you understand how we built this chart. If you weren't, do some thinking about it cause its all there.

A few charts and lines I'm watching for the week. Use them to spark ideas about reading price. 

EUR/USD 240min: This center has been describing the price action well with the sellers clearly leaving their tracks.

I posted some Manic Monday Charts so lets review and see if there was anything actionable.

ES #F 20 min.: this was the best of the bunch when considering solid trades. Over 4:1 Risk Reward, solid place for a stop, easy flow with several good entries. Out of an up sloping Median Line set into a Down sloping.

This is an update to last week’s Aussie 60min chart. Price has gone from balance out to its extreme and is bouncing there.

Last week I said I was looking for a Price Action Tell to see which side of balance it would tip. We ended up getting a few price action and market structure Tells which were gone over in our live session today. The use of a Minor Median Line set (just like in the last Aussie 20min blog post) helped with a manageable entry idea as well.  

This is an update to the One Bar Scary Drop chart I posted last month using the Language of Price. At this point you have your choice of targets.

Just a reminder that Tim Morge will be doing a free webinar for Interactive Brokers tomorrow on Gold Futures and the Language of price 12/15 11am CST. 

A followup to Wednesday's conversation with the 60min EUR.  We left off waiting for them to bait the hook again. Price ground up to the confluence of  the give up area  and the upper Median Line parallel where sellers were ready to feed out some more. 

The truth of the trend is down regardless of the fluctuations.  

This is a follow up to our live Monday session. We talked about seeing the truth of the trend through the noise and then identified these sellers in the EUR. The next day price gave a high probability entry. 

We also talked about communicating with the market. so lets see how that would have applied.

I see pattern similarities with the 2008 peak in Silver. It’s bigger and not exact but it’s the same type of exhaustion pattern. I play all of these the same way no matter what instrument or time frame. I want to find places to sell it down into structure or wait for it to create some structure that says it’s turning back up. 

Shane

When I tell traders to have patience they ask     “What is it I should have patience for"

You should have patience to wait for something interesting to happen; something dramatic that leaves a marker you can make educated probability decisions off of. (We are not here to guess or get lucky)

Price just tagged the outer parallel on our gold map. Its at an extreme but unfortunately there is not much to do here if your flat. I never short these extremes(its bad business).. Price can just as easily power up to the next line or creep up the current line.

This Median Line has been working well for the whole run so lets see what we can learn form how price handles this extreme. I will look for it to come back to some form of balance and see if we can craft good risk reward entries either way. Maybe price will form some structure up here and give us a tell...

I'm a sucker for poetry in the markets. I know I'm the guy who keeps saying that everything is in price but I like this entry because of the of the employment report at the end of such a drama filled  week.. 

This is just a simple channel that projects the approximate TIME for a pullback in a trend.. We are using it here in conjunction with the POI (Point of Ignition) area. Same area we hunted for the squeeze up last year. 

Crude Oil finally gave it up today. I have been holding a long position taken at 90.50 for some time after taking profits on my prior long at 113.60. In Monday’s live session, we spent a great deal of time going over the two possibilities:

Price would hold support at the multiple bottoms found at 93.50 and then turn back higher. Any break above the green down sloping multi-pivot line or Change in Behavior Line would be the first clue new buyers had entered the market. The second clue would be a break above the prior Swing High at 101.00. And any move above the Multiple Swing Highs at 105.00 should ignite this market to new highs. One of the members was short and looking to take his profits just above the 93.50 area.