Time for some review and look at our long term charts. 

ES #F monthly: First posted here in the Lost Decades post. Price has ticked our target along the upper MLH of the Median Lines. Notice the swings up getting smaller. Price has sought out and fulfilled its destiny here. Price is always seeking an area to probe.  Now we wait and see what it does with the test. Not interested in buying the next pullback if the sellers hold. Many good lessons here if you pay attention to what was written in the prior post.

The Median Line set is an ideal tool for pullbacks in trend. It acts like a pendulum. We did an IB presentation on Pendulum Pullbacks a few months ago.

We have been discussing these AUD/USD charts in our live sessions. Everything from Median Lines to Market Structure to entry triggers, to Money Management. The last blog post was “Bait or Switch” as price was testing the first Warning Line.

Warning Lines are an extension of the Median Line Set. They are stepped out equidistant and at the same slope. They give price a break from its current trend and let it breathe. They can also be a warning that the trend may be changing.

Markets finally got a little bounce to them today and I’m wondering if flow is changing or if its bait. Here is what I’m watching 

AUD/USD 60min: These have been the lines that keep on giving. We have been following them out in our live sessions for some time. The geometry has been music.

Most of my stop outs are boring and not worth writing about. I spend more time taking apart and building on my success so that I can make them a permanent part of what I do. This one falls into the general category of forcing a trade but that is common and boring as well.  You shouldn't look at any of your trades in a right or wrong context, look at them for what is interesting and for what can be learned..

What I found interesting was the structure in different time frames compared to what you may be framing. I don’t mix time frames when I trade. Whatever grabs my focus for whatever reason is what I trade and don’t care what the other time frames say.  Every action has its proper reaction and your time frame will tell you everything you need to know… Including stay out.

A Few actionable Ideas from last weeks Median Line charts. All 3 ran out to there mapped stretch and ran. The lines are still in play.

AUD/USD 240min: I never got a retest to sell the upper Warning Line Price was is a hurry to meet the next Time and Price energy point of those same lines. From there it went back to its next stretch at the upper blue excursion line. I know a few members that lined up this long with various targets so congrats to them for making and sticking to their plan. Note that price action at each end gave an outside bar telegraphing its intentions. I also observe a pater of price washing the prior weeks lows before making new highs.

The geometry in this chart is so nice I couldn't resist putting it up. We started this map in live session the other day to demonstrate a lesson about breakouts and the natural phases of a trend. I was showing setups I use to play breakouts. Its been a live lesson in the nature of the lines and how they work with the repeatable rhythm of price.

The Median Lines ride the trend up and down with the centerline cutting though the middle projecting the extremes.

Not much to do last week on the 240's. Same basic charts with some updates.

AUD/USD 240min: Price failed to reach the Grey ML (Hagopians Rule) and quickly went through the MLH and retested. This is an observation by Alan Andrews that I often use an an entry. He said "Frequently, after crossing a lower MLH, prices continue to rise (drop) along the MLH before the further drop (rise) that was signaled by passing through"

In the first part of this basics series  (Median Lines: How to Choose Major Pivots) we learned how to define major swing points from which to draw Median Line Sets.Once you understand your structure, its a matter of connecting the circles and reading your Median Lines with the 5 main Andrews rules. I will do a basic Andrews 5 rules post later in the series. First we understand how and where to draw from, then we build up from there.

First chart walks you through the swings as price changes trend. Notice the use of the dotted Median Line sets to gauge the pullbacks.They show you the pullback in a trend and where price should run out of energy.

Some Median Line charts for the week using the major swing pivots. 

Shane

Lets follow-up the Mid-Week Charts to see what we can learn and if there were any actionable trade ideas. Keep in mind that what's actionable for me might not be for you. There is no one size fits all. Each individual will have their own risk profile and their own trading style. Spend more time studying your market(and yourself) than trading. Slow down...

AUD/USD 60min: I said that price was "pressed, squeezed, and ripe". I was referring to price being at the extremes of both the Modified Schiff Median Line and the Grey Reaction Line. It was ripe for a trip back to balance. Just like everything else in life, things go out to extremes and come back to balance. The long trade idea at the black circle isn't for everybody. The flow is down and price has been cascading. Its a trade I take occasionally. I do like the price action at the bottom. Although you could do both the long(black circle) and short ideas(green circle) I prefer the the short. Price is in a downtrend and has come back to balance to reset. The Sunday gap has already been beaten to the downside and I can lean on those sellers for my stop. there are many choices for a target depending on your style.

Markets are in play so time to pay attention. Don't get caught up in the emotion of the sharp moves. Take your time, make your map, and there will be a place we can exploit the emotion. Spend more time observing that trading and your trades will be of higher quality.

Some longer term Median Line charts I'm looking at.. Some old some new. I will post some stock charts im watching later this week. 

I posted some Manic Monday Charts so lets review and see if there was anything actionable.

ES #F 20 min.: this was the best of the bunch when considering solid trades. Over 4:1 Risk Reward, solid place for a stop, easy flow with several good entries. Out of an up sloping Median Line set into a Down sloping.

A few weeks ago, I posted a long-term weekly US. Dollar/Swiss Franc chart that Shane and I had been watching and trading for more than five years to illustrate the concept of Price Discovery. I followed up that post with a 240 minute chart that bore a striking resemblance: A Median Line and its Parallels gave many high probability trade entries on each chart. Eventually, price plunged lower literally vertical on both charts, reaching the Lower First Warning Line in one Wide Range Bar.

When price goes vertical, it is in its ‘Price Discovery’ phase, especially when it has traded past all the normal sign posts of support or resistance. Dr. Andrews gave us several tools and insights that help us project the Probable Path of Price, tools that are ‘Leading Indicators’, unlike 99.999 percent of the indicators most traders rely upon.

I’d like to follow up on my recent post regarding Price Discovery: When price finds itself in uncharted waters and you, as a trader, have little or nothing that looks or feels familiar to help you gauge where price is going and when it is likely to go…well, that’s the problem, isn’t? The signposts are gone.

The last post featured the weekly U.S. Dollar against the Swiss and an incredible vertical sell off of the U.S. Dollar that had reached roughly 70 cents against the Swissy – an incredible move by any measure.

Price fluctuates – It is the nature of everything in this universe. The universe is alive and change is the nature of everything. Eighty years ago, Dr. Andrews developed a methodology that allows us to the most probable path of price, in advance; he stated that this methodology worked on ‘anything that fluctuates, in any time frame’.

In our methodology at Market Geometry, we use market structure like Swing Highs and Lows, Lines of Balance, lines that plot out where a Change in Behavior  may occur, areas that show signs of significant buyers or sellers [Whale Tracks] and of course, the two tools pioneered by Dr. Andrews at MIT: Action Reaction Lines and Median Lines. I am one of the few remaining students from Dr. Andrews original ‘Inner Circle’, the Coral Gables Group, and so I know his work probably better than anyone else alive. But since adding emphasis on Market Structure, the other drawing tools I mentioned above and putting greater emphasis on the areas Whales are attracted to, I found my trading has improved dramatically. When I use all these tools together, I get a very detailed map of the most probable path of price-and generally find a handful of high probability entries on these maps.

Crude Oil finally gave it up today. I have been holding a long position taken at 90.50 for some time after taking profits on my prior long at 113.60. In Monday’s live session, we spent a great deal of time going over the two possibilities:

Price would hold support at the multiple bottoms found at 93.50 and then turn back higher. Any break above the green down sloping multi-pivot line or Change in Behavior Line would be the first clue new buyers had entered the market. The second clue would be a break above the prior Swing High at 101.00. And any move above the Multiple Swing Highs at 105.00 should ignite this market to new highs. One of the members was short and looking to take his profits just above the 93.50 area.